Collapsed As-Built Dashboard Larchmere Library and Community Hub (Demo Data) · AACE RP 29R-03 §3.8 (Modeled / Subtractive / Single Simulation)
Summary of Findings
Removing the seven delay events from the as-built schedule brings completion 20 working days earlier, from 4 September 2026 to 7 August 2026. Removed in turn, the Owner's events account for 12 working days and the Contractor's for 8.
The windows analysis of the same schedules measures 86 working days of movement against the 20 working days found here, a gap of 76.7%; section 3 explains why.
Each cause, removed in turn, adds back the working days below; together 20 working days
7 August 2026As-built finish
4 September 2026
The finish dates here are the opening of the working day after the last day worked: the as-built schedule’s last day of work is 3 September 2026.
The as-built update was filed at data date 5 August 2025 but records actual progress up to 14 October 2025, so it is read at 15 October 2025, as section 4 sets out.
What Was Removed
Each event was taken out of a copy of the as-built schedule, which was then recalculated: removed alone, the finish moves by the event’s own effect; removed in turn, each event adds to the ones before it.
| Event | Cause | What was removed | Party | Removed alone | Removed in turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Curtain wall: RFI-14 anchor and sill revision adds field work at every floor | A2260 shortened from 15 to 12 working days | Owner | 3 | 3 |
| E2 | Curtain wall: RFI-14 anchor and sill revision adds field work at every floor | A2300 shortened from 15 to 12 working days | Owner | 3 | 3 |
| E3 | Curtain wall: RFI-14 anchor and sill revision adds field work at every floor | A2340 shortened from 15 to 12 working days | Owner | 3 | 3 |
| E4 | Curtain wall: RFI-14 anchor and sill revision adds field work at every floor | A2380 shortened from 15 to 12 working days | Owner | 3 | 3 |
| E5 | Level 2 finishing re-planned: flooring crew shared with another project | A3610 shortened from 7 to 4 working days | Contractor | 3 | 3 |
| E6 | Level 2 finishing re-planned: flooring crew shared with another project | A3620 shortened from 7 to 4 working days | Contractor | 3 | 3 |
| E7 | Level 2 finishing re-planned: flooring crew shared with another project | A3630 shortened from 5 to 3 working days | Contractor | 2 | 2 |
| Total | 20 |
Why the Result Differs From the Windows Analysis
The windows analysis measures 86 working days of movement between the schedules; removing the events here gives 20 working days, 66 working days apart.
The two methods measure different things. The windows analysis measures the whole movement of the finish between the schedules, whatever caused it. Collapsed as-built takes out only the events it is given, each as a shortened duration or a deleted activity, and holds completed work at its actual dates, so movement that comes from changed logic or progress lost is not an event it can remove.
Why the two methods disagree. The windows analysis measures the whole movement of the finish: 86 working days. This model removes only the duration growth on the driving path, the 7 activities that grew on it, 20 working days between them. Removed one at a time, each moves the finish by its full growth. Removed together they move it by the same 20 working days: no other chain takes over within that range. The other 66 working days of the windows drift come from changes this method cannot take out: 19 activities inserted on the driving path (61 working days of new work), 96 links added and 46 removed between the two schedules, and progress lost before the corrected data date. Collapsed as-built removes delay events from the as-built schedule and holds completed work as built, so a logic change or lost progress is not an event it can remove, and removing the growth of every activity that grew, all 13 of them, on the driving path or off it, moves the finish 20 working days. No honest set of events reaches 86, so this check reads INVESTIGATE.
The results differ by more than 15%, so this result does not corroborate the windows figure: what it measures is the effect of the events it removes, not the whole movement of the finish.
The 5% and 15% bands are CPP practice thresholds, not figures from AACE RP 29R-03; exhibit A-04 sets out the comparison.
How Far the Figures Can Be Relied On
The figures come from the as-built schedule recalculated with each event taken out; completed work stays where it happened.
Method: AACE 29R-03 MIP 3.8 (modeled, subtractive, single simulation). For each event the as-built schedule is copied, the event removed (its added duration shortened, or the activity deleted with its links) and the schedule recalculated; the change in the finish is that event’s effect. Removed together, the events give the cumulative figure. The default removal is shorten.
Completed activities are held at their actual dates, so a delay that sits on completed work cannot be removed here: such an event is marked locked and reports 0 working days, which is not a finding that it had no effect.
Anchor check: the schedule’s stored finish and the recalculated finish agree, so every date here starts from the schedule as filed.
How the Schedule Was Read
Data date corrected.
This update has actual dates after its data date of 05-Aug-2025 00:00.
The latest is A2910's actual finish, 14-Oct-2025 17:00, so this report moves the data date to the start of the next day, 15-Oct-2025, and reschedules the update as P6 does.
62 activities had actual dates after 05-Aug-2025.
102 activities that hadn't started were forecast to start before 15-Oct-2025; they now start on or after it.
The file reports a finish of 24-Jun-2026.
At the corrected data date its logic gives 03-Sep-2026, 49 working days after the file's finish on the project calendar. This report uses 03-Sep-2026.
Basis of Measurement
Diagnostics
The run raised four diagnostics; exhibit A-05 lists every one with what it means for the result.
The Evidence
The exhibits behind these findings follow in full, each under its drawing code:
- A-01Methodology
- A-02Per-Event Subtractive Pass
- A-03Cumulative Roll-Up
- A-04Dual-Method Gap
- A-05Diagnostics and Warnings
Methodology
AACE RP 29R-03 §3.8 · Modeled / Subtractive / Single SimulationFor each documented delay event, the as-built network is cloned, the event's impact removed (by either shorten, reducing affected activity durations, or remove, deleting the affected activities and their TASKPRED edges), and the CPM forward pass re-run. The resulting project finish is the but-for [event] date. The differential between the as-built finish and the but-for finish is the event's attributed impact under the Modeled / Subtractive method.
Configuration. Default removal method is shorten (a per-event override applies when an event specifies its own removal_method). Contractor filter: No, every event in the input list contributes to the cumulative pass.
Actual-date lock. Completed activities are held at their actual dates in every pass, and remaining work is never scheduled before the data date, so delay that sits on completed work cannot be collapsed here. Such an event is marked locked by actuals and reports 0 working days; that 0 is not a finding that the event had no impact.
Subtractive
Single Simulation
- AACE RP 29R-03, Forensic Schedule Analysis Recommended Practice, §3.8 Modeled/Subtractive/Single Simulation (Collapsed As-Built / But-For), §3.9 Modeled/Subtractive/Multiple Base.
- SCL Delay & Disruption Protocol, 2nd ed., §11.5: TIA (forward) vs Collapsed As-Built (backward).
- CPP heuristic thresholds: the 5%/15% dual-method convergence bands are CPP's own, not a published standard.
The subtractive method is sensitive to the input impact_days values. A ±20% input uncertainty on the per-event impact durations can swing the cumulative result by a similar amount. CPP practice (not an AACE 29R-03 §3.8 requirement) is to run a schedule risk analysis (Monte Carlo with duration uncertainty distributions) against the input durations and report the P50 ± P90 range alongside the deterministic figures shown here. This dashboard reports a deterministic point estimate; opposing counsel should be expected to attack the input uncertainty on cross-examination. See the schedule-risk-analysis skill output for the corresponding probabilistic envelope.
When two delays affect the project simultaneously on overlapping paths, the subtractive method (this skill) and windows analysis (forensic-delay-analysis MIP 3.3) can produce different attribution. The cumulative pass treats all delays as additive; if the project has concurrent owner-vs-contractor delays or two parallel critical chains, run a concurrent-delay analysis (forensic-delay-analysis windows method, AACE 29R-03 §3.3) and reconcile against the output below. Dual-method gaps >10% are a strong signal that concurrent delays are present.
Per-Event Subtractive Pass
clone · remove impact · re-run forward passFor each delay event below, the as-built network was cloned, the event's impact removed using the indicated method, and the CPM forward pass re-run. The resulting "but-for" finish and computed impact are shown.
| Event ID | Name | Affected Activities | Removal | As-Built Finish | But-For Finish | Impact (wd) | Responsible | Contractor? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Curtain wall: RFI-14 anchor and sill revision adds field work at every floor | A2260 | shorten | 04-Sep-2026 | 01-Sep-2026 | 3 wd | Owner | N |
| E2 | Curtain wall: RFI-14 anchor and sill revision adds field work at every floor | A2300 | shorten | 04-Sep-2026 | 01-Sep-2026 | 3 wd | Owner | N |
| E3 | Curtain wall: RFI-14 anchor and sill revision adds field work at every floor | A2340 | shorten | 04-Sep-2026 | 01-Sep-2026 | 3 wd | Owner | N |
| E4 | Curtain wall: RFI-14 anchor and sill revision adds field work at every floor | A2380 | shorten | 04-Sep-2026 | 01-Sep-2026 | 3 wd | Owner | N |
| E5 | Level 2 finishing re-planned: flooring crew shared with another project | A3610 | shorten | 04-Sep-2026 | 01-Sep-2026 | 3 wd | Contractor | Y |
| E6 | Level 2 finishing re-planned: flooring crew shared with another project | A3620 | shorten | 04-Sep-2026 | 01-Sep-2026 | 3 wd | Contractor | Y |
| E7 | Level 2 finishing re-planned: flooring crew shared with another project | A3630 | shorten | 04-Sep-2026 | 02-Sep-2026 | 2 wd | Contractor | Y |
For each event: the duration removed and the basis used, plus what drives the but-for finish. A completed activity whose finish is on or before the data date cannot pull a successor whose start is pinned at the data-date floor, so the computed impact is 0 working days even when a duration was removed. A completed successor is held at its actual dates, with the same result. An event stopped either way is marked locked by actuals below: the delay has already happened, this tool cannot collapse it, and its 0 is not a finding that the event had no impact.
Cumulative Roll-Up
all events removed together · single subtractive passDual-Method Gap
MIP 3.3 (Windows) vs MIP 3.8 (Subtractive)Methods disagree by more than 15%. The forensic conclusion is NOT defensibly grounded under practitioner-consensus convergence cut-offs. Significant further investigation is required before submitting the claim.
Thresholds: AGREE ≤ 5% · WARN 5-15% · INVESTIGATE > 15%. Bands are CPP heuristic thresholds. They are NOT codified numeric cut-offs in AACE RP 29R-03 (which permits more than one method in §5 but describes no cross-check and publishes no numeric tolerance percentages).
Diagnostics & Warnings
4 diagnostics · 4 detectors, all listed4 diagnostics across 4 detector codes. The triage strip below states, per detector, what its findings mean for the reliability of the but-for result; the full registers follow, grouped by detector, every entry listed.
| Detector | ALERT | WARN | INFO | What it means for the but-for result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cpm/constraint-violated | 1 | 0 | 0 | A date constraint affected (or failed to affect) the pass as noted. A constrained date can hold the but-for finish in place and mask logic-driven movement. |
| cpm/out-of-sequence | 1 | 0 | 0 | Work progressed out of logic order, so the as-built chain the removal walks may not be the chain the work actually followed; the removed duration can land on the wrong path. |
| collapsed-calendar-basis | 0 | 0 | 1 | States which calendar the working-day figures are counted on (or that it had to be guessed). A different calendar changes working-day magnitudes, not the but-for dates themselves. |
| collapsed-schedule-options | 0 | 0 | 1 | States the P6 scheduling mode and relationship-lag calendar every CPM pass ran under, and how they were read from the export (SCHEDOPTIONS row, or the P6 default when the export omits it). Informational; a different mode or lag calendar would move the computed dates. |