QRAMM Maturity Self-Assessment

AACE International RP 122R-22 "Quantitative Risk Analysis Maturity Model" (Oct 13 2022, rev Apr 22 2024)
Tier 3 — Managed
Tier 2 plus scenario comparison (baseline vs mitigated) so the recovery delta is measured, OR a qualitative risk register integrated into the simulation per the Hulett risk-driver method (AACE RP 57R-09 (Hulett risk-driver method) / Hulett 2009). Iteration count is sized for stable percentiles.

Evidence in this run

  • Iteration count: 5,000
  • Baseline P50 / P80 produced: 2026-05-09 / 2026-05-18
  • Three-point inputs: opt 85% / ml 100% / pes 130%
  • Distribution: Triangular
  • Per-activity sensitivity: 50 ranked drivers (Pearson correlation tornado)
  • Scenario comparison: baseline vs mitigated present
  • No qualitative risk register

Gaps to next tier

  • Add a qualitative risk register alongside the mitigation scenario (Hulett method).
  • Tag every risk with attributed_to (owner / contractor / concurrent / force_majeure) so the analyst can answer "which party owns each day of risk?".
Tier definitions in this badge are an interpretation of typical risk-maturity-model structure (CMMI-style: Initial / Defined / Managed / Optimized) mapped onto evidence the SRA result dict carries. They are NOT verbatim from AACE 122R-22 and require confirmation against the primary RP before use for external client submission. Primary citation: AACE International RP 122R-22 "Quantitative Risk Analysis Maturity Model" (Oct 13 2022, rev Apr 22 2024).

Northern Ontario Industrial Facility Expansion - Phase 2 — Schedule Risk Analysis

Monte Carlo simulation results · Basis: calendar days
Generated 2026-05-03 10:17:44
Data date: 2025-07-01
5,000
Iterations
Triangular
Distribution
85/100/130%
Opt / ML / Pes
2026-04-21
Deterministic finish
2026-05-09
P50 finish
2026-05-18
P80 finish
2026-05-27
P90 finish

Probabilistic Completion Percentiles

Percentile Completion date Day offset Δ from deterministic
P102026-04-27300+6d
P252026-05-02305+11d
P502026-05-09311+18d
P752026-05-16319+25d
P802026-05-18321+27d
P852026-05-22324+31d
P902026-05-27329+36d
P952026-06-03337+43d

Completion-day Distribution

Raw iteration histogram — 5,000 samples.
Day 287.6 — count 2Day 289.3 — count 7Day 291.1 — count 11Day 292.8 — count 37Day 294.6 — count 56Day 296.3 — count 105Day 298.1 — count 149Day 299.8 — count 163Day 301.6 — count 247Day 303.4 — count 278Day 305.1 — count 296Day 306.9 — count 366Day 308.6 — count 387Day 310.4 — count 333Day 312.1 — count 358Day 313.9 — count 305Day 315.6 — count 280Day 317.4 — count 269Day 319.1 — count 203Day 320.9 — count 175Day 322.7 — count 144Day 324.4 — count 104Day 326.2 — count 111Day 327.9 — count 77Day 329.7 — count 77Day 331.4 — count 60Day 333.2 — count 57Day 334.9 — count 55Day 336.7 — count 52Day 338.5 — count 46Day 340.2 — count 34Day 342.0 — count 43Day 343.7 — count 28Day 345.5 — count 24Day 347.2 — count 22Day 349.0 — count 17Day 350.7 — count 6Day 352.5 — count 8Day 354.3 — count 5Day 356.0 — count 32873043223393570129258387DetP50P80P90Completion day offset from data dateIterations
Iteration count per binP10-P90 bandDeterministicP50P80P90

Sensitivity — Tornado (top 15 by |correlation|)

-0.73-0.36+0.00+0.36+0.73A2110: corr=+0.726 — 23 74 13 - Air Source Heat PumpA2110 — 23 74 13 - Air Source Heat Pump+0.726A1920: corr=+0.300 — Fall Arrest Anchors and Horizontal LinesA1920 — Fall Arrest Anchors and Horizon...+0.300A3170: corr=+0.159 — Install Built-up RoofA3170 — Install Built-up Roof+0.159A1330: corr=+0.146 — Fall Arrest Anchors and Horizontal LinesA1330 — Fall Arrest Anchors and Horizon...+0.146A4180: corr=+0.114 — Mechanical, Electrical and Elevator CommissioningA4180 — Mechanical, Electrical and Elev...+0.114CPA4240: corr=+0.104 — Minor Deficiencies & Touch-upsA4240 — Minor Deficiencies & Touch-ups+0.104CPA4190: corr=+0.088 — Integrated TestingA4190 — Integrated Testing+0.088CPA3840: corr=+0.072 — Elevator Testing and CommissioningA3840 — Elevator Testing and Commissioning+0.072A3220: corr=+0.054 — Mech. and Elec. Equipment InstallationA3220 — Mech. and Elec. Equipment Insta...+0.054A3360: corr=+0.045 — Drywall Taping and MuddingA3360 — Drywall Taping and Mudding+0.045A3820: corr=+0.042 — Rails and Elevator Car installationA3820 — Rails and Elevator Car installa...+0.042A2630: corr=+0.041 — Install Roof AnchorsA2630 — Install Roof Anchors+0.041A3350: corr=+0.041 — Gypsum board InstallationA3350 — Gypsum board Installation+0.041A3300: corr=+0.040 — Electrical, FA & Comms rough-insA3300 — Electrical, FA & Comms rough-ins+0.040A3210: corr=+0.039 — Electrical and Mechanical RoomA3210 — Electrical and Mechanical Room+0.039Pearson correlation (activity duration vs completion day)
Positive correlation (longer duration → later finish)Negative correlationOn critical path
Showing top 15 of 282 activity drivers. Full ranking is in the Sensitivity_Data.csv export.

Top Sensitivity Drivers

RankCodeActivity Planned dur.CorrelationImpact
1A211023 74 13 - Air Source Heat Pump224.0d+0.726162.55
2A1920Fall Arrest Anchors and Horizontal Lines60.0d+0.30018.01
3A3170Install Built-up Roof30.0d+0.1594.77
4A1330Fall Arrest Anchors and Horizontal Lines31.0d+0.1464.53
5A198023 25 00 - Buffer Tanks131.0d+0.0233.00
6A208023 00 00 - Unit Heater78.0d-0.0372.86
7A200023 21 16 - Expansion Tanks91.0d+0.0252.32
8A1840Finished Hardware91.0d-0.0242.15
9A1820Coiling Doors100.0d+0.0171.75
10A4180CPMechanical, Electrical and Elevator Commissioning15.0d+0.1141.71
11A202022 33 00 - Electric Domestic Water Heaters91.0d-0.0181.65
12A196023 74 13 - Air Handling Units180.0d-0.0091.59
13A195023 82 19 - Fan Coil Units109.0d-0.0131.43
14A2210Landscape (unit pavers, furniture, etc)60.0d-0.0231.39
15A199023 21 16 - Air Separator91.0d+0.0151.32
Showing top 15 of 282 activity drivers — full ranking in Sensitivity_Data.csv. Impact = |correlation| × planned duration. Critical-path activities flagged CP.

Schedule Recovery — Baseline vs Mitigated

PercentileBaseline dateMitigated dateSchedule recovery
P102026-04-272026-04-270d
P252026-05-022026-05-020d
P502026-05-092026-05-090d
P752026-05-162026-05-160d
P802026-05-182026-05-180d
P852026-05-222026-05-220d
P902026-05-272026-05-270d
P952026-06-032026-06-030d
0.50.8287304322339357Completion day offsetCumulative probability
Baseline P-curve Mitigated P-curve P50 / P80 markers

Methodology

Forecast completion dates are produced by Monte Carlo simulation over the activity duration distribution implied by the optimistic / most-likely / pessimistic percentages applied to each incomplete activity's planned duration. A full CPM forward pass is executed per iteration; percentiles are derived from the completion-day vector using numpy.percentile(method='lower') to match Tool_11 browser parity. Sensitivity (tornado) is the Pearson correlation between each activity's sampled-duration vector and the final completion-day vector; impact = |corr| × planned duration.

Distribution: Triangular · Iterations: 5,000 · Random seed: 42 · Day basis: calendar days from data date. Calendar-day basis means day offsets count every calendar day from the data date; working-day basis converts to a simple 5-day workweek (Mon–Fri, no holidays).

Prepared by the schedule-risk-analysis skill in the CPP Scheduling Suite. This dashboard is self-contained — all assets are inlined and it renders offline.

Schedule Risk Analysis · Generated 2026-05-03 10:17:44 · Self-contained document (no network required).