CPP
CRITICAL PATH PARTNERSForensic Schedule Analysis
DWG · CPP-SRA / SHEET A-00
Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis
Schedule Risk Analysis

Ontario Community College - B2 (Demo Data) Monte Carlo simulation results · Basis: working_days days

Project
Ontario Community College - B2 (Demo Data)
Data Date
2025-07-01
Generated
2026-07-15 17:47:55
Iterations
5,000
P80 Completion
2026
05-22
P50 2026-05-12 · P90 2026-05-29
Distribution
Triangular
Det. Finish
2026-04-21
A-01

Headline Risk Metrics

Monte Carlo · 5,000 iterations
Iterations
5,000
simulation trials
Distribution
Triangular
opt 90% / ml 100% / pes 130%
P50 Finish
2026-05-12
day offset 219
P80 Finish
2026-05-22
day offset 226
P90 Finish
2026-05-29
day offset 231
Deterministic Finish
2026-04-21
single-point CPM
Three-point Inputs
90/100/130%
opt / ml / pes
Random Seed
none
reproducible run
A-02

QRAMM Maturity Self-Assessment

AACE RP 122R-22
Maturity Reading

Calibrated three-point inputs (optimistic / most-likely / pessimistic) with documented distribution choice, sufficient iteration count, and per-activity sensitivity (Pearson correlation tornado) showing which activities drive the completion-day variance.

Reference: AACE International RP 122R-22 "Quantitative Risk Analysis Maturity Model" (Oct 13 2022; revisions not verified).

Tier
2
Iterations
5,000
Drivers Ranked
282
Scenarios
1
Maturity Tier
2/4
TIER 2 · DEFINED
scenario comparison absent
Evidence In This Run
  • Iteration count: 5,000
  • Baseline P50 / P80 produced: 2026-05-12 / 2026-05-22
  • Three-point inputs: opt 90% / ml 100% / pes 130%
  • Distribution: Triangular
  • Per-activity sensitivity: 282 ranked drivers (Pearson correlation tornado)
  • No mitigation scenario supplied
  • No qualitative risk register
Gaps To Next Tier
  • Add at least one of: a mitigation scenario (baseline vs mitigated comparison), or a qualitative risk register (Hulett method, AACE RP 57R-09 §4).
Caveat

Tier definitions in this badge are an interpretation of typical risk-maturity-model structure (CMMI-style: Initial / Defined / Managed / Optimized) mapped onto evidence the SRA result dict carries. They are NOT verbatim from AACE 122R-22 and require confirmation against the primary RP before use for external client submission. Primary citation: AACE International RP 122R-22 "Quantitative Risk Analysis Maturity Model" (Oct 13 2022; revisions not verified).

A-03

Probabilistic Completion Percentiles

8 percentiles · all listed
PercentileCompletion dateDay offsetΔ from deterministic
P102026-05-02212+8d
P252026-05-07216+12d
P502026-05-12219+15d
P752026-05-19223+19d
P802026-05-22226+22d
P852026-05-25227+23d
P902026-05-29231+27d
P952026-06-05236+32d

Δ is measured against the single-point deterministic CPM finish. A later percentile (red) is downside schedule risk, an earlier one upside. The color flags direction relative to the deterministic estimate. The P10–P90 spread itself is expected uncertainty, not a per-percentile alarm.

A-04

Completion-day Distribution

raw iteration histogram · 5,000 samples
Completion-day histogram40 bins · n=5,000
Day 293.4 — count 3Day 295.1 — count 4Day 296.7 — count 10Day 298.3 — count 36Day 299.9 — count 62Day 301.6 — count 104Day 303.2 — count 151Day 304.8 — count 182Day 306.4 — count 258Day 308.1 — count 283Day 309.7 — count 307Day 311.3 — count 372Day 312.9 — count 388Day 314.6 — count 344Day 316.2 — count 341Day 317.8 — count 309Day 319.4 — count 276Day 321.1 — count 263Day 322.7 — count 200Day 324.3 — count 169Day 325.9 — count 139Day 327.6 — count 102Day 329.2 — count 103Day 330.8 — count 71Day 332.4 — count 79Day 334.1 — count 55Day 335.7 — count 58Day 337.3 — count 54Day 338.9 — count 50Day 340.5 — count 43Day 342.2 — count 35Day 343.8 — count 37Day 345.4 — count 29Day 347.0 — count 24Day 348.7 — count 20Day 350.3 — count 17Day 351.9 — count 7Day 353.5 — count 7Day 355.2 — count 5Day 356.8 — count 32933093253413580129259388DetP50P80P90Completion day offset from data dateIterations
Iteration count per bin P10-P90 band Deterministic P50 P80 P90
A-05

Sensitivity — Tornado

every driver plotted · 282 drivers
Pearson correlation — activity duration vs completion day282 ranked drivers
-0.73-0.37+0.00+0.37+0.73A2110: corr=+0.733 — 23 74 13 - Air Source Heat PumpA2110 — 23 74 13 - Air Source Heat Pump+0.733A1920: corr=+0.305 — Fall Arrest Anchors and Horizontal LinesA1920 — Fall Arrest Anchors and Horizon...+0.305A3170: corr=+0.161 — Install Built-up RoofA3170 — Install Built-up Roof+0.161A1330: corr=+0.148 — Fall Arrest Anchors and Horizontal LinesA1330 — Fall Arrest Anchors and Horizon...+0.148A4180: corr=+0.112 — Mechanical, Electrical and Elevator CommissioningA4180 — Mechanical, Electrical and Elev...+0.112CPA4240: corr=+0.101 — Minor Deficiencies & Touch-upsA4240 — Minor Deficiencies & Touch-ups+0.101CPA4190: corr=+0.087 — Integrated TestingA4190 — Integrated Testing+0.087CPA3840: corr=+0.071 — Elevator Testing and CommissioningA3840 — Elevator Testing and Commissioning+0.071A3220: corr=+0.053 — Mech. and Elec. Equipment InstallationA3220 — Mech. and Elec. Equipment Insta...+0.053A3360: corr=+0.047 — Drywall Taping and MuddingA3360 — Drywall Taping and Mudding+0.047A3820: corr=+0.041 — Rails and Elevator Car installationA3820 — Rails and Elevator Car installa...+0.041A2630: corr=+0.041 — Install Roof AnchorsA2630 — Install Roof Anchors+0.041A3300: corr=+0.040 — Electrical, FA & Comms rough-insA3300 — Electrical, FA & Comms rough-ins+0.040A3350: corr=+0.040 — Gypsum board InstallationA3350 — Gypsum board Installation+0.040A3210: corr=+0.040 — Electrical and Mechanical RoomA3210 — Electrical and Mechanical Room+0.040A2620: corr=-0.038 — Structural Steel InspectionA2620 — Structural Steel Inspection-0.038A2080: corr=-0.036 — 23 00 00 - Unit HeaterA2080 — 23 00 00 - Unit Heater-0.036A3190: corr=-0.035 — Hoisting Roof EquipmentA3190 — Hoisting Roof Equipment-0.035A1540.1: corr=+0.034 — 22 40 00 - Plumbing Fixtures (R1)A1540.1 — 22 40 00 - Plumbing Fixtures (R1)+0.034A1870: corr=-0.033 — ACT & ACBA1870 — ACT & ACB-0.033A2850: corr=-0.032 — Exterior Cladding Site Measure and ScanningA2850 — Exterior Cladding Site Measure ...-0.032A3410: corr=+0.032 — PaintingA3410 — Painting+0.032A2720: corr=-0.032 — Tactile Attention Indicators Mock-upA2720 — Tactile Attention Indicators Mo...-0.032A1520: corr=+0.031 — 23 74 13 - Air Source Heat PumpA1520 — 23 74 13 - Air Source Heat Pump+0.031A3830: corr=+0.029 — Power to controller, Phone lines and CommsA3830 — Power to controller, Phone line...+0.029A1250: corr=-0.029 — Finished Hardware ScheduleA1250 — Finished Hardware Schedule-0.029A1350: corr=-0.027 — Sprinkler & Standpipe Shop DrawingsA1350 — Sprinkler & Standpipe Shop Draw...-0.027A2640: corr=+0.027 — Install Roof DeckingA2640 — Install Roof Decking+0.027A3630: corr=+0.027 — Gypsum board InstallationA3630 — Gypsum board Installation+0.027A4640: corr=+0.026 — Taping DrywallA4640 — Taping Drywall+0.026A3260: corr=-0.026 — Seal Concrete FloorA3260 — Seal Concrete Floor-0.026CPA3270: corr=-0.025 — New Stair A InstallationA3270 — New Stair A Installation-0.025A3640: corr=+0.025 — Drywall Taping and MuddingA3640 — Drywall Taping and Mudding+0.025A2730: corr=+0.025 — Stairs B Installation @ North SideA2730 — Stairs B Installation @ North Side+0.025A4460: corr=-0.025 — Drywall InstallationA4460 — Drywall Installation-0.025CPA4430: corr=-0.025 — Stud FramingA4430 — Stud Framing-0.025CPA3340: corr=+0.025 — ACT Baffles Mock-upsA3340 — ACT Baffles Mock-ups+0.025A1690: corr=+0.025 — Structural ReinforcementA1690 — Structural Reinforcement+0.025CPA3510: corr=+0.025 — Drywall Taping and MuddingA3510 — Drywall Taping and Mudding+0.025A2000: corr=+0.024 — 23 21 16 - Expansion TanksA2000 — 23 21 16 - Expansion Tanks+0.024A3560: corr=+0.024 — Seal concrete FloorA3560 — Seal concrete Floor+0.024A3580: corr=+0.024 — Mech. & Plumbing rough-insA3580 — Mech. & Plumbing rough-ins+0.024A3590: corr=-0.023 — Electrical, FA & Comms rough-insA3590 — Electrical, FA & Comms rough-ins-0.023A2210: corr=-0.023 — Landscape (unit pavers, furniture, etc)A2210 — Landscape (unit pavers, furnitu...-0.023A4040x: corr=+0.023 — MEP Rough-ins + SprinklerA4040x — MEP Rough-ins + Sprinkler+0.023CPA3470: corr=+0.023 — Sprinkler Rough-insA3470 — Sprinkler Rough-ins+0.023A3900: corr=+0.023 — Interior M&E Rough inA3900 — Interior M&E Rough in+0.023A4770: corr=+0.023 — Concrete Slab InfillA4770 — Concrete Slab Infill+0.023A1840: corr=-0.023 — Finished HardwareA1840 — Finished Hardware-0.023A3540: corr=+0.022 — PaintingA3540 — Painting+0.022A2200: corr=-0.022 — Concrete for HardscapeA2200 — Concrete for Hardscape-0.022A1980: corr=+0.022 — 23 25 00 - Buffer TanksA1980 — 23 25 00 - Buffer Tanks+0.022A4100: corr=-0.022 — PaintingA4100 — Painting-0.022CPA3140: corr=+0.021 — L1, L2 & L3 Cladding Installation (EW2, EW2A)A3140 — L1, L2 & L3 Cladding Installati...+0.021A1470.1: corr=+0.021 — 23 37 13 - Diffuser and Grilles Shop Drawings (R1)A1470.1 — 23 37 13 - Diffuser and Grilles...+0.021A1310: corr=-0.021 — Paint DrawdownsA1310 — Paint Drawdowns-0.021A2840: corr=-0.021 — L1, L2, L3 Exterior Glazing Installation (W05)A2840 — L1, L2, L3 Exterior Glazing Ins...-0.021A2940: corr=+0.021 — Exterior Cladding Site Measure and ScanningA2940 — Exterior Cladding Site Measure ...+0.021A1110.1: corr=+0.021 — Structural Reinforcement + Decking Shop Drawings (R1)A1110.1 — Structural Reinforcement + Deck...+0.021CPA1670: corr=+0.021 — Masonry and MortarA1670 — Masonry and Mortar+0.021A4120: corr=-0.021 — Final Terminations and Fixtures InstallationA4120 — Final Terminations and Fixtures...-0.021CPA2780: corr=+0.020 — Above Grade Vapour Mock-upA2780 — Above Grade Vapour Mock-up+0.020A1900: corr=+0.020 — Paint DrawdownsA1900 — Paint Drawdowns+0.020A1500: corr=+0.020 — 23 52 16 - Heating BoilersA1500 — 23 52 16 - Heating Boilers+0.020A3150: corr=+0.020 — Roof Parapet FramingA3150 — Roof Parapet Framing+0.020A5230: corr=-0.020 — Footings and Piers Along GL-B.1 (Successor to CO-005)A5230 — Footings and Piers Along GL-B.1...-0.020A2530.1: corr=-0.019 — Backfilling to U/S of Grade Beams (GL AA)A2530.1 — Backfilling to U/S of Grade Bea...-0.019A4450: corr=-0.019 — Plywood BlockingA4450 — Plywood Blocking-0.019CPA1700: corr=-0.019 — Cold-formed Metal FramingA1700 — Cold-formed Metal Framing-0.019A4080: corr=-0.018 — Drywall/Sheathing InstallationA4080 — Drywall/Sheathing Installation-0.018CPA1940: corr=-0.018 — Sprinkler & Standpipe Shop DrawingsA1940 — Sprinkler & Standpipe Shop Draw...-0.018A2700: corr=+0.018 — Rebar Installation for SOGA2700 — Rebar Installation for SOG+0.018A3100: corr=-0.018 — Glazing Shop FabricationA3100 — Glazing Shop Fabrication-0.018A3000: corr=-0.018 — Glazing Shop FabricationA3000 — Glazing Shop Fabrication-0.018A2420: corr=-0.018 — Form and Pour North Exit StairA2420 — Form and Pour North Exit Stair-0.018A4500: corr=+0.018 — CNC Machine Relocation (Cash Allowance)A4500 — CNC Machine Relocation (Cash Al...+0.018CPA3760: corr=-0.018 — Plumbing Washroom Fixtures InstallationA3760 — Plumbing Washroom Fixtures Inst...-0.018A3740: corr=+0.018 — Millwork InstallationA3740 — Millwork Installation+0.018A4070: corr=+0.017 — Frames installationA4070 — Frames installation+0.017CPA2680: corr=-0.017 — Concrete pour for slab on deck level 2 & 3A2680 — Concrete pour for slab on deck ...-0.017A3160: corr=+0.017 — Roof Penetration LayoutA3160 — Roof Penetration Layout+0.017A2950: corr=-0.017 — Exterior Cladding Shop FabricationA2950 — Exterior Cladding Shop Fabrication-0.017A2020: corr=-0.017 — 22 33 00 - Electric Domestic Water HeatersA2020 — 22 33 00 - Electric Domestic Wa...-0.017A1820: corr=+0.017 — Coiling DoorsA1820 — Coiling Doors+0.017A3710: corr=-0.017 — Tiling and rubber flooring InstallationA3710 — Tiling and rubber flooring Inst...-0.017A4590: corr=+0.017 — Steel Joist Reinforcement InstallationA4590 — Steel Joist Reinforcement Insta...+0.017CPA1790: corr=-0.017 — Hollow Metal DoorsA1790 — Hollow Metal Doors-0.017A1850: corr=-0.016 — Stud framing & gypsum boardA1850 — Stud framing & gypsum board-0.016A4660: corr=+0.016 — Setup Temporary HoardingA4660 — Setup Temporary Hoarding+0.016A3010: corr=+0.016 — L2 & L3 Exterior Glazing Installation (W08a, W08b)A3010 — L2 & L3 Exterior Glazing Instal...+0.016A2880: corr=-0.016 — L1, L2 & L3 Framing and Sheathing InstallationA2880 — L1, L2 & L3 Framing and Sheathi...-0.016CPA3020: corr=+0.016 — Exterior Cladding Site Measure and ScanningA3020 — Exterior Cladding Site Measure ...+0.016A4170: corr=-0.016 — Fire Alarm VerificationA4170 — Fire Alarm Verification-0.016A2790: corr=+0.016 — L1, L2 & L3 Air Vapour Barrier InstallationA2790 — L1, L2 & L3 Air Vapour Barrier ...+0.016A4560: corr=+0.015 — Review Interferences with Steel JoistA4560 — Review Interferences with Steel...+0.015A2650: corr=+0.015 — Install Level 2 & 3 DeckingA2650 — Install Level 2 & 3 Decking+0.015A1990: corr=+0.015 — 23 21 16 - Air SeparatorA1990 — 23 21 16 - Air Separator+0.015A2040: corr=+0.015 — 22 13 29 - Sump PumpsA2040 — 22 13 29 - Sump Pumps+0.015A3050: corr=+0.015 — Horizontal Shading LouversA3050 — Horizontal Shading Louvers+0.015A3320: corr=+0.015 — Blocking InstallationA3320 — Blocking Installation+0.015A4650: corr=+0.015 — PaintingA4650 — Painting+0.015A1810: corr=+0.015 — Flush Wood DoorsA1810 — Flush Wood Doors+0.015A4580: corr=+0.014 — New Columns InstallationA4580 — New Columns Installation+0.014A2820: corr=+0.014 — Glazing Site Measure and ScanningA2820 — Glazing Site Measure and Scanning+0.014A3500: corr=+0.014 — Gypsum board InstallationA3500 — Gypsum board Installation+0.014A2760: corr=+0.014 — Masonry Mock-upA2760 — Masonry Mock-up+0.014A1380x: corr=+0.014 — Metal Shelving (R1)A1380x — Metal Shelving (R1)+0.014A1480.1: corr=+0.014 — 23 00 00 - Exhaust Fans (R1)A1480.1 — 23 00 00 - Exhaust Fans (R1)+0.014A4610: corr=+0.014 — MEP Rough-insA4610 — MEP Rough-ins+0.014A2870: corr=+0.013 — L1, L2 & L3 Cladding Installation (EW2a)A2870 — L1, L2 & L3 Cladding Installati...+0.013A4490: corr=+0.013 — FinishesA4490 — Finishes+0.013CPA1590.1: corr=-0.013 — 26 09 23 - Lighting Control (R1)A1590.1 — 26 09 23 - Lighting Control (R1)-0.013A4010: corr=-0.013 — Underground Plumbing Rough-insA4010 — Underground Plumbing Rough-ins-0.013A3650: corr=-0.013 — Door and Hardware InstallationA3650 — Door and Hardware Installation-0.013A4680: corr=+0.013 — Interior DemoilitionA4680 — Interior Demoilition+0.013A1320: corr=-0.013 — Washroom accessories and Partitions Shop DrawingsA1320 — Washroom accessories and Partit...-0.013A2660: corr=-0.013 — Install Temporary Hoarding for Slab on DeckA2660 — Install Temporary Hoarding for ...-0.013A3450: corr=+0.013 — Mech. & Plumbing rough-insA3450 — Mech. & Plumbing rough-ins+0.013A1950: corr=-0.013 — 23 82 19 - Fan Coil UnitsA1950 — 23 82 19 - Fan Coil Units-0.013A2740: corr=+0.013 — Cold-Formed Metal Framing MockA2740 — Cold-Formed Metal Framing Mock+0.013A3720: corr=+0.013 — Ceiling/Wall Fixtures InstallationA3720 — Ceiling/Wall Fixtures Installation+0.013A1140: corr=-0.013 — Millwork Shop DrawingsA1140 — Millwork Shop Drawings-0.013A4760: corr=+0.012 — Trench BackfillA4760 — Trench Backfill+0.012A1210: corr=-0.012 — Interior Aluminum ScreenA1210 — Interior Aluminum Screen-0.012A2970: corr=-0.012 — L2 & L3 Framing and Sheathing InstallationA2970 — L2 & L3 Framing and Sheathing I...-0.012CPA4230: corr=-0.012 — Close-out Documents & TrainingA4230 — Close-out Documents & Training-0.012A3130: corr=+0.012 — Exterior Cladding Shop FabricationA3130 — Exterior Cladding Shop Fabrication+0.012A2590: corr=-0.012 — Backfilling to U/S of SOGA2590 — Backfilling to U/S of SOG-0.012A2100: corr=-0.012 — 23 00 00 - Wall Fin HeaterA2100 — 23 00 00 - Wall Fin Heater-0.012A3430: corr=-0.012 — Seal concrete FloorA3430 — Seal concrete Floor-0.012A3750: corr=-0.012 — Washroom Partitions and Accessories InstallationA3750 — Washroom Partitions and Accesso...-0.012A1860: corr=-0.012 — TilingA1860 — Tiling-0.012A3400: corr=-0.012 — Paint Mock-upA3400 — Paint Mock-up-0.012A1750: corr=-0.012 — Air Barrier SystemA1750 — Air Barrier System-0.012A2090: corr=+0.012 — 23 52 16 - Heating BoilersA2090 — 23 52 16 - Heating Boilers+0.012A4220: corr=-0.011 — Final CleaningA4220 — Final Cleaning-0.011A3910: corr=-0.011 — Interior FinishesA3910 — Interior Finishes-0.011A4040: corr=-0.011 — MEP Rough-insA4040 — MEP Rough-ins-0.011CPA2580: corr=+0.011 — Underground DrainageA2580 — Underground Drainage+0.011A1760: corr=-0.011 — Exterior Wall CladdingA1760 — Exterior Wall Cladding-0.011A1300: corr=+0.011 — Flooring Data Sheets and SamplesA1300 — Flooring Data Sheets and Samples+0.011A2540: corr=+0.011 — Compaction InspectionA2540 — Compaction Inspection+0.011A3570: corr=-0.011 — New wall partition framingA3570 — New wall partition framing-0.011A4670: corr=-0.011 — Electrical and Mechanical Make SafeA4670 — Electrical and Mechanical Make ...-0.011A4370: corr=-0.011 — Underground Mechanical Installation (DCW, Sprinkler)A4370 — Underground Mechanical Installa...-0.011A1780: corr=-0.010 — Hollow Metal FramesA1780 — Hollow Metal Frames-0.010A4160: corr=-0.010 — Landscape InstallationsA4160 — Landscape Installations-0.010A1910: corr=+0.010 — Washroom accessories and PartitionsA1910 — Washroom accessories and Partit...+0.010A2060: corr=-0.010 — 23 37 13 - Diffuser and GrillesA2060 — 23 37 13 - Diffuser and Grilles-0.010A4050: corr=-0.010 — Sprinkler Rough-insA4050 — Sprinkler Rough-ins-0.010CPA4530: corr=-0.010 — Electrical and Mechanical Make SafeA4530 — Electrical and Mechanical Make ...-0.010A3460: corr=+0.010 — Electrical, FA & Comms rough-insA3460 — Electrical, FA & Comms rough-ins+0.010A4690: corr=-0.010 — Electrical FixturesA4690 — Electrical Fixtures-0.010A4550: corr=-0.010 — Existing Exterior Wall Demo (New Building Must be Erected and Enclosed)A4550 — Existing Exterior Wall Demo (Ne...-0.010A3940: corr=-0.009 — Existing Slab Removal and TrenchingA3940 — Existing Slab Removal and Trenc...-0.009A4480: corr=-0.009 — PaintA4480 — Paint-0.009CPA4780: corr=-0.009 — New Columns InstallationA4780 — New Columns Installation-0.009A2440: corr=+0.009 — Formwork Remaining Pad Footing (Ramp)A2440 — Formwork Remaining Pad Footing ...+0.009A1960: corr=-0.009 — 23 74 13 - Air Handling UnitsA1960 — 23 74 13 - Air Handling Units-0.009A4510: corr=-0.009 — Metal Shelving InstallationA4510 — Metal Shelving Installation-0.009A2890: corr=+0.009 — L1 Masonry Wall InstallationA2890 — L1 Masonry Wall Installation+0.009A1930: corr=+0.009 — Hydraulic LiftA1930 — Hydraulic Lift+0.009A4720: corr=+0.009 — Existing Column ReinforcementA4720 — Existing Column Reinforcement+0.009A3550: corr=+0.009 — Fire Spraying & Intumecent PaintA3550 — Fire Spraying & Intumecent Paint+0.009A2070: corr=+0.009 — 23 00 00 - Exhaust FansA2070 — 23 00 00 - Exhaust Fans+0.009A3620: corr=-0.009 — Door frames InstallationA3620 — Door frames Installation-0.009A1620: corr=-0.008 — Landscape Shop DrawingsA1620 — Landscape Shop Drawings-0.008A3330: corr=+0.008 — Door frames InstallationA3330 — Door frames Installation+0.008A4110: corr=-0.008 — Tile and Rubber Flooring InstallationA4110 — Tile and Rubber Flooring Instal...-0.008CPA4400: corr=-0.008 — Existing Columns ReinforcementA4400 — Existing Columns Reinforcement-0.008CPA4630: corr=+0.008 — Drywall InstallationA4630 — Drywall Installation+0.008A1730: corr=+0.008 — Built-up RoofingA1730 — Built-up Roofing+0.008A3880: corr=-0.008 — Structural Steel erection including expansion platesA3880 — Structural Steel erection inclu...-0.008A1200: corr=-0.008 — Hollow Metal Frames & Doors Shop DrawingsA1200 — Hollow Metal Frames & Doors Sho...-0.008A3420: corr=+0.008 — Fire Spraying & Intumecent PaintA3420 — Fire Spraying & Intumecent Paint+0.008A1460.1: corr=-0.008 — 23 25 00 - Water Treatment (R1)A1460.1 — 23 25 00 - Water Treatment (R1)-0.008A3290: corr=-0.008 — Mech. & Plumbing rough-insA3290 — Mech. & Plumbing rough-ins-0.008A4820: corr=+0.008 — Concrete Floor SealerA4820 — Concrete Floor Sealer+0.008CPA1800: corr=-0.008 — Interior Aluminum ScreensA1800 — Interior Aluminum Screens-0.008A2750: corr=-0.008 — L1, L2 & L3 Framing and Sheathing InstallationA2750 — L1, L2 & L3 Framing and Sheathi...-0.008CPA3110: corr=-0.008 — L1, L2 & L3 Exterior Glazing Installation (W09a, W09b)A3110 — L1, L2 & L3 Exterior Glazing In...-0.008A3700: corr=-0.008 — Tiling & Rubber & Carpet Flooring Mock-upA3700 — Tiling & Rubber & Carpet Floori...-0.008A2920: corr=-0.008 — Glazing Shop FabricationA2920 — Glazing Shop Fabrication-0.008A4150: corr=+0.007 — New Exterior Paved Areas and SidewalksA4150 — New Exterior Paved Areas and Si...+0.0072170: corr=-0.007 — 26 50 00 - Emergency Lighting & Exit Signs2170 — 26 50 00 - Emergency Lighting &...-0.007A1970: corr=-0.007 — 23 21 23 - PumpsA1970 — 23 21 23 - Pumps-0.007A3440: corr=-0.007 — New partition framingA3440 — New partition framing-0.007A3030: corr=-0.007 — Exterior Cladding Shop FabricationA3030 — Exterior Cladding Shop Fabrication-0.007A3770: corr=+0.007 — Corner Guards and Wall Protection InstallationA3770 — Corner Guards and Wall Protecti...+0.007A3730: corr=-0.007 — Millwork Mock-upA3730 — Millwork Mock-up-0.007A2910: corr=+0.007 — Glazing Site Measure and ScanningA2910 — Glazing Site Measure and Scanning+0.007A1720: corr=+0.006 — MillworkA1720 — Millwork+0.006A3250: corr=-0.006 — Fire Spraying & Intumecent Paint InspectionA3250 — Fire Spraying & Intumecent Pain...-0.006CPA2560: corr=+0.006 — Below Grade Vapour Barrier Mock-upA2560 — Below Grade Vapour Barrier Mock-up+0.006A3530: corr=-0.006 — Interior Glazing InstallationA3530 — Interior Glazing Installation-0.006A2550: corr=+0.006 — Form and Pour Grade BeamsA2550 — Form and Pour Grade Beams+0.006A4810: corr=-0.006 — Self LevellingA4810 — Self Levelling-0.006A2180: corr=+0.006 — 26 09 23 - Lighting ControlA2180 — 26 09 23 - Lighting Control+0.006A1260: corr=-0.006 — Stud framing and Gypsum Board Data SheetsA1260 — Stud framing and Gypsum Board D...-0.006A4520: corr=+0.006 — Setup Temporary HoardingA4520 — Setup Temporary Hoarding+0.006CPA2550x: corr=+0.006 — R6 - RFI 60 Sprinkler Diesel PumpA2550x — R6 - RFI 60 Sprinkler Diesel Pump+0.006A4600: corr=-0.006 — Stud FramingA4600 — Stud Framing-0.006A2670: corr=+0.006 — Rebar and Prep Work for Slab on DeckA2670 — Rebar and Prep Work for Slab on...+0.006A1360.2: corr=+0.006 — 23 82 19 - Fan Coil Units (R2)A1360.2 — 23 82 19 - Fan Coil Units (R2)+0.006A3490: corr=+0.006 — Door frames InstallationA3490 — Door frames Installation+0.006A2010: corr=+0.006 — 23 57 00 - Heat ExchangersA2010 — 23 57 00 - Heat Exchangers+0.006A4540: corr=+0.006 — Interior DemoilitionA4540 — Interior Demoilition+0.006A3280: corr=+0.005 — New partition framingA3280 — New partition framing+0.005A1270: corr=-0.005 — Tiling Data sheet and samplesA1270 — Tiling Data sheet and samples-0.005A3240: corr=-0.005 — Fire Spraying & Intumecent PaintA3240 — Fire Spraying & Intumecent Paint-0.005CPA1830: corr=+0.005 — Aluminum Framed Glazing SystemsA1830 — Aluminum Framed Glazing Systems+0.005A2090x: corr=-0.005 — Metal ShelvingA2090x — Metal Shelving-0.005A1770: corr=+0.005 — Fire-resistive MaterialA1770 — Fire-resistive Material+0.005A3670: corr=+0.005 — PaintingA3670 — Painting+0.005A2810: corr=+0.005 — Aluminum & Metal Panel Cladding Mock-upA2810 — Aluminum & Metal Panel Cladding...+0.005A3520: corr=+0.004 — Door and Hardware InstallationA3520 — Door and Hardware Installation+0.004A2960: corr=-0.004 — L2 & L3 Cladding Installation (EW2)A2960 — L2 & L3 Cladding Installation (...-0.004A2030: corr=+0.004 — 23 81 26 - Split SystemA2030 — 23 81 26 - Split System+0.004A2690: corr=-0.004 — Final Grading and Vapor Barrier for SOGA2690 — Final Grading and Vapor Barrier...-0.004A4790: corr=+0.004 — Existing Column ReinforcementA4790 — Existing Column Reinforcement+0.004A3860: corr=+0.004 — Concrete Vertical PiersA3860 — Concrete Vertical Piers+0.004A1710: corr=+0.004 — Misc. MetalsA1710 — Misc. Metals+0.004A2570: corr=-0.004 — Footing Vapor Barrier & InsulationA2570 — Footing Vapor Barrier & Insulation-0.004A4060: corr=+0.004 — BlockingA4060 — Blocking+0.004CPA2830: corr=+0.004 — Glazing Shop FabricationA2830 — Glazing Shop Fabrication+0.004A3230: corr=-0.004 — Fire Spraying & Intumecent Paint Mock-upA3230 — Fire Spraying & Intumecent Pain...-0.004A3060: corr=-0.004 — L1, L2 & L3 Framing and Sheathing InstallationA3060 — L1, L2 & L3 Framing and Sheathi...-0.004CPA3890: corr=+0.004 — EnvelopeA3890 — Envelope+0.004A1170: corr=-0.004 — Air Barrier System Data Sheet and MockupA1170 — Air Barrier System Data Sheet a...-0.004A4030: corr=+0.004 — New Partition FramingA4030 — New Partition Framing+0.004CPA3310: corr=+0.004 — Sprinkler Rough-insA3310 — Sprinkler Rough-ins+0.004A2800: corr=+0.004 — AVB InspectionA2800 — AVB Inspection+0.004A2930: corr=-0.004 — L1, L2 & L3 Exterior Glazing Installation (W07a, W07b, W01, W02 & W03)A2930 — L1, L2 & L3 Exterior Glazing In...-0.004A3200: corr=-0.004 — Roof Anchor System InstallationA3200 — Roof Anchor System Installation-0.004A1530.1: corr=+0.004 — 20 05 10 - Electric Heat Tracing (R1)A1530.1 — 20 05 10 - Electric Heat Tracin...+0.004A1130: corr=+0.003 — Misc. Metals Shop DrawingsA1130 — Misc. Metals Shop Drawings+0.003A3870: corr=+0.003 — Removal of Existing Facade for Tie InA3870 — Removal of Existing Facade for ...+0.003A3040: corr=-0.003 — L2 & L3 Cladding Installation (EW2)A3040 — L2 & L3 Cladding Installation (...-0.003A2190: corr=-0.003 — 28 31 00 - Fire AlarmA2190 — 28 31 00 - Fire Alarm-0.003A2770: corr=-0.003 — L1 Masonry Wall installationA2770 — L1 Masonry Wall installation-0.003A1740: corr=+0.003 — TPO Roofing (Bridge)A1740 — TPO Roofing (Bridge)+0.003A2710: corr=+0.003 — Concrete Pour and Curing for SOGA2710 — Concrete Pour and Curing for SOG+0.003A4730: corr=-0.003 — Steel Joist Reinforcement InstallationA4730 — Steel Joist Reinforcement Insta...-0.003A3850: corr=+0.003 — FoundationsA3850 — Foundations+0.003A2990: corr=-0.003 — Glazing Site Measure and ScanningA2990 — Glazing Site Measure and Scanning-0.003A2480: corr=-0.003 — Concrete for Remaining Pad Footings (Ramp)A2480 — Concrete for Remaining Pad Foot...-0.003A2140: corr=+0.003 — 26 27 26 - Wiring Devices, Service Poles, & Floor BoxesA2140 — 26 27 26 - Wiring Devices, Serv...+0.003A3180: corr=-0.003 — Roof InspectionA3180 — Roof Inspection-0.003A1610: corr=+0.003 — Concrete Mix for HardscapesA1610 — Concrete Mix for Hardscapes+0.003A3090: corr=-0.002 — Glazing Site Measure and ScanningA3090 — Glazing Site Measure and Scanning-0.002A3370: corr=+0.002 — Door and Hardware InstallationA3370 — Door and Hardware Installation+0.002A4470: corr=-0.002 — Taping DrywallA4470 — Taping Drywall-0.002CPA3390: corr=+0.002 — Interior Aluminum/Glazing Screens InstallationA3390 — Interior Aluminum/Glazing Scree...+0.002A3810: corr=+0.002 — Install Controller at Machine RoomA3810 — Install Controller at Machine Room+0.002A4090: corr=+0.002 — Taping and muddingA4090 — Taping and mudding+0.002CPA3120: corr=-0.002 — Exterior Cladding Site Measure and ScanningA3120 — Exterior Cladding Site Measure ...-0.002A2900: corr=-0.002 — Air Vapor Barrier InstallationA2900 — Air Vapor Barrier Installation-0.002A2050: corr=-0.002 — 23 25 00 - Water TreatmentA2050 — 23 25 00 - Water Treatment-0.002A2130: corr=+0.002 — 22 40 00 - Plumbing FixturesA2130 — 22 40 00 - Plumbing Fixtures+0.002A1180: corr=+0.002 — Exterior Wall Cladding Shop DrawingsA1180 — Exterior Wall Cladding Shop Dra...+0.002A4570: corr=-0.002 — Joist Interferences RelocationA4570 — Joist Interferences Relocation-0.002A2860: corr=-0.001 — Exterior Cladding Shop FabricationA2860 — Exterior Cladding Shop Fabrication-0.001A4380: corr=-0.001 — Backfilling and Concrete for SOGA4380 — Backfilling and Concrete for SOG-0.001A2980: corr=+0.001 — L2 & L3 Air Vapor Barrier InstallationA2980 — L2 & L3 Air Vapor Barrier Insta...+0.001A3070: corr=+0.001 — L1, L2 & L3 Air Vapor Barrier InstallationA3070 — L1, L2 & L3 Air Vapor Barrier I...+0.001A4620: corr=+0.001 — Plywood BlockingA4620 — Plywood Blocking+0.001A2150: corr=+0.001 — 26 50 00 - Lighting FixturesA2150 — 26 50 00 - Lighting Fixtures+0.001A2160: corr=-0.001 — 27 10 00 - Structural Cabling System (Fiber Optic Cable)A2160 — 27 10 00 - Structural Cabling S...-0.001A2560x: corr=-0.001 — R7 - SP 3 & 4 - 3rd Floor Fan Coil Units ScopeA2560x — R7 - SP 3 & 4 - 3rd Floor Fan C...-0.001A2120: corr=+0.001 — 20 05 10 - Electric Heat TracingA2120 — 20 05 10 - Electric Heat Tracing+0.001A1240: corr=+0.001 — Aluminum Framed Glazing System Shop DrawingsA1240 — Aluminum Framed Glazing System ...+0.001A3380: corr=-0.001 — Interior Aluminum/Glazing Screens Mock-upA3380 — Interior Aluminum/Glazing Scree...-0.001A2610: corr=-0.001 — Erect Structural SteelA2610 — Erect Structural Steel-0.001A4420: corr=-0.001 — Steel Joist Reinforcement InstallationA4420 — Steel Joist Reinforcement Insta...-0.001CPA3690: corr=-0.001 — Misc. Metals installationA3690 — Misc. Metals installation-0.001A3660: corr=+0.000 — Interior Glazing InstallationA3660 — Interior Glazing Installation+0.000A3600: corr=+0.000 — Sprinkler Rough-insA3600 — Sprinkler Rough-ins+0.000A1680: corr=-0.000 — Structural SteelA1680 — Structural Steel-0.000A4800: corr=+0.000 — Flatness Survey @ Floor SlabA4800 — Flatness Survey @ Floor Slab+0.000A3680: corr=+0.000 — Misc. Metals Mock-upA3680 — Misc. Metals Mock-up+0.000A4710: corr=-0.000 — Relocation of InterferencesA4710 — Relocation of Interferences-0.000A1890: corr=+0.000 — FlooringA1890 — Flooring+0.000Pearson correlation (activity duration vs completion day)
Positive correlation (longer duration → later finish) Negative correlation On critical path
A-06

Ranked Sensitivity Drivers

282 drivers · all listed
SENSRanked duration-sensitivity drivers (Pearson correlation)
282 drivers — all listedExport CSV
RankCodeActivityPlanned dur.CorrelationImpact
1A211023 74 13 - Air Source Heat Pump224.0d+0.733164.20
2A1920Fall Arrest Anchors and Horizontal Lines60.0d+0.30518.30
3A3170Install Built-up Roof30.0d+0.1614.83
4A1330Fall Arrest Anchors and Horizontal Lines31.0d+0.1484.58
5A198023 25 00 - Buffer Tanks131.0d+0.0222.88
6A208023 00 00 - Unit Heater78.0d-0.0362.78
7A200023 21 16 - Expansion Tanks91.0d+0.0242.22
8A1840Finished Hardware91.0d-0.0232.07
9A1820Coiling Doors100.0d+0.0171.69
10A4180CPMechanical, Electrical and Elevator Commissioning15.0d+0.1121.68
11A196023 74 13 - Air Handling Units180.0d-0.0091.67
12A202022 33 00 - Electric Domestic Water Heaters91.0d-0.0171.54
13A2210Landscape (unit pavers, furniture, etc)60.0d-0.0231.40
14A195023 82 19 - Fan Coil Units109.0d-0.0131.38
15A199023 21 16 - Air Separator91.0d+0.0151.37
16A209023 52 16 - Heating Boilers100.0d+0.0121.15
17A4240CPMinor Deficiencies & Touch-ups11.0d+0.1011.12
18A1810Flush Wood Doors75.0d+0.0151.11
19A210023 00 00 - Wall Fin Heater90.0d-0.0121.07
20A3840Elevator Testing and Commissioning15.0d+0.0711.06
21A1790Hollow Metal Doors61.0d-0.0171.01
22A206023 37 13 - Diffuser and Grilles100.0d-0.0101.01
23A1870ACT & ACB30.0d-0.0330.99
24A1930Hydraulic Lift101.0d+0.0090.91
25A4190CPIntegrated Testing10.0d+0.0870.87
26A1690CPStructural Reinforcement30.0d+0.0250.74
27A197023 21 23 - Pumps100.0d-0.0070.71
28A1800Interior Aluminum Screens90.0d-0.0080.70
29217026 50 00 - Emergency Lighting & Exit Signs91.0d-0.0070.66
30A1760Exterior Wall Cladding60.0d-0.0110.65
31A1540.122 40 00 - Plumbing Fixtures (R1)19.0d+0.0340.64
32A207023 00 00 - Exhaust Fans72.0d+0.0090.63
33A218026 09 23 - Lighting Control100.0d+0.0060.61
34A3140L1, L2 & L3 Cladding Installation (EW2, EW2A)25.0d+0.0210.54
35A3220Mech. and Elec. Equipment Installation10.0d+0.0530.53
36A1470.123 37 13 - Diffuser and Grilles Shop Drawings (R1)24.0d+0.0210.51
37A150023 52 16 - Heating Boilers26.0d+0.0200.51
38A201023 57 00 - Heat Exchangers91.0d+0.0060.50
39A3360Drywall Taping and Mudding10.0d+0.0470.47
40A2840L1, L2, L3 Exterior Glazing Installation (W05)21.0d-0.0210.44
41A3210Electrical and Mechanical Room11.0d+0.0400.44
42A1780Hollow Metal Frames41.0d-0.0100.43
43A204022 13 29 - Sump Pumps28.0d+0.0150.42
44A203023 81 26 - Split System97.0d+0.0040.42
45A3820Rails and Elevator Car installation10.0d+0.0410.41
46A2630Install Roof Anchors10.0d+0.0410.41
47A2420Form and Pour North Exit Stair23.0d-0.0180.41
48A3300Electrical, FA & Comms rough-ins10.0d+0.0400.40
49A1830Aluminum Framed Glazing Systems80.0d+0.0050.39
50A3100Glazing Shop Fabrication21.0d-0.0180.38
51A3000Glazing Shop Fabrication21.0d-0.0180.37
52A2730Stairs B Installation @ North Side15.0d+0.0250.37
53A1860Tiling31.0d-0.0120.36
54A2950Exterior Cladding Shop Fabrication20.0d-0.0170.34
55A1710Misc. Metals80.0d+0.0040.33
56A1720Millwork51.0d+0.0060.32
57A152023 74 13 - Air Source Heat Pump10.0d+0.0310.31
58A3850Foundations116.0d+0.0030.31
59A1940Sprinkler & Standpipe Shop Drawings16.0d-0.0180.29
60A1250Finished Hardware Schedule10.0d-0.0290.29
61A2870L1, L2 & L3 Cladding Installation (EW2a)20.0d+0.0130.27
62A1350Sprinkler & Standpipe Shop Drawings10.0d-0.0270.27
63A1910Washroom accessories and Partitions26.0d+0.0100.26
64A1730Built-up Roofing31.0d+0.0080.26
65A219028 31 00 - Fire Alarm82.0d-0.0030.25
66A3270New Stair A Installation10.0d-0.0250.25
67A4770Concrete Slab Infill11.0d+0.0230.25
68A3640Drywall Taping and Mudding10.0d+0.0250.25
69A3510Drywall Taping and Mudding10.0d+0.0250.25
70A3130Exterior Cladding Shop Fabrication20.0d+0.0120.24
71A3580Mech. & Plumbing rough-ins10.0d+0.0240.24
72A2550xR6 - RFI 60 Sprinkler Diesel Pump41.0d+0.0060.24
73A3590Electrical, FA & Comms rough-ins10.0d-0.0230.23
74A214026 27 26 - Wiring Devices, Service Poles, & Floor Boxes91.0d+0.0030.23
75A3470Sprinkler Rough-ins10.0d+0.0230.23
76A3900Interior M&E Rough in10.0d+0.0230.23
77A4500CPCNC Machine Relocation (Cash Allowance)13.0d+0.0180.23
78A1900Paint Drawdowns11.0d+0.0200.22
79A1210Interior Aluminum Screen18.0d-0.0120.22
80A4040CPMEP Rough-ins20.0d-0.0110.22
81A1310Paint Drawdowns10.0d-0.0210.21
82A1700Cold-formed Metal Framing11.0d-0.0190.21
83A1480.123 00 00 - Exhaust Fans (R1)15.0d+0.0140.20
84A3350Gypsum board Installation5.0d+0.0400.20
85A3630Gypsum board Installation7.0d+0.0270.19
86A4080CPDrywall/Sheathing Installation10.0d-0.0180.18
87A205023 25 00 - Water Treatment100.0d-0.0020.18
88A213022 40 00 - Plumbing Fixtures100.0d+0.0020.18
89A3190Hoisting Roof Equipment5.0d-0.0350.18
90A2970CPL2 & L3 Framing and Sheathing Installation14.0d-0.0120.17
91A3710Tiling and rubber flooring Installation10.0d-0.0170.17
92A4590CPSteel Joist Reinforcement Installation10.0d+0.0170.17
93A2580Underground Drainage15.0d+0.0110.16
94A2880CPL1, L2 & L3 Framing and Sheathing Installation10.0d-0.0160.16
95A3410Painting5.0d+0.0320.16
96A4170Fire Alarm Verification10.0d-0.0160.16
97A2650Install Level 2 & 3 Decking10.0d+0.0150.15
98A4150New Exterior Paved Areas and Sidewalks20.0d+0.0070.15
99A3830Power to controller, Phone lines and Comms5.0d+0.0290.15
100A2920Glazing Shop Fabrication19.0d-0.0080.14
101A4580New Columns Installation10.0d+0.0140.14
102A216027 10 00 - Structural Cabling System (Fiber Optic Cable)194.0d-0.0010.14
103A1380xMetal Shelving (R1)10.0d+0.0140.14
104A1460.123 25 00 - Water Treatment (R1)17.0d-0.0080.13
105A3030Exterior Cladding Shop Fabrication20.0d-0.0070.13
106A1590.126 09 23 - Lighting Control (R1)10.0d-0.0130.13
107A4010Underground Plumbing Rough-ins10.0d-0.0130.13
108A2640Install Roof Decking5.0d+0.0270.13
109A3650Door and Hardware Installation10.0d-0.0130.13
110A1320Washroom accessories and Partitions Shop Drawings10.0d-0.0130.13
111A3450Mech. & Plumbing rough-ins10.0d+0.0130.13
112A4640Taping Drywall5.0d+0.0260.13
113A3720Ceiling/Wall Fixtures Installation10.0d+0.0130.13
114A1140Millwork Shop Drawings10.0d-0.0130.13
115A4460CPDrywall Installation5.0d-0.0250.12
116A3880Structural Steel erection including expansion plates15.0d-0.0080.12
117A4040xCPMEP Rough-ins + Sprinkler5.0d+0.0230.12
118A1750Air Barrier System10.0d-0.0120.12
119A2200Concrete for Hardscape5.0d-0.0220.11
120A1300Flooring Data Sheets and Samples10.0d+0.0110.11
121A3570New wall partition framing10.0d-0.0110.11
122A4370Underground Mechanical Installation (DCW, Sprinkler)10.0d-0.0110.11
123A1670Masonry and Mortar5.0d+0.0210.10
124A4120CPFinal Terminations and Fixtures Installation5.0d-0.0210.10
125A3260CPSeal Concrete Floor4.0d-0.0260.10
126A4160Landscape Installations10.0d-0.0100.10
127A1360.223 82 19 - Fan Coil Units (R2)18.0d+0.0060.10
128A4050CPSprinkler Rough-ins10.0d-0.0100.10
129A2090xMetal Shelving21.0d-0.0050.10
130A1850Stud framing & gypsum board6.0d-0.0160.10
131A1770Fire-resistive Material21.0d+0.0050.10
132A3150Roof Parapet Framing5.0d+0.0200.10
133A5230Footings and Piers Along GL-B.1 (Successor to CO-005)5.0d-0.0200.10
134A3460Electrical, FA & Comms rough-ins10.0d+0.0100.10
135A2930L1, L2 & L3 Exterior Glazing Installation (W07a, W07b, W01, W02 & W03)26.0d-0.0040.09
136A1620Landscape Shop Drawings11.0d-0.0080.09
137A3890Envelope25.0d+0.0040.09
138A4720Existing Column Reinforcement10.0d+0.0090.09
139A215026 50 00 - Lighting Fixtures100.0d+0.0010.09
140A3760Plumbing Washroom Fixtures Installation5.0d-0.0180.09
141A3740Millwork Installation5.0d+0.0180.09
142A4070CPFrames installation5.0d+0.0170.09
143A2960L2 & L3 Cladding Installation (EW2)20.0d-0.0040.09
144A3010L2 & L3 Exterior Glazing Installation (W08a, W08b)5.0d+0.0160.08
145A1740TPO Roofing (Bridge)30.0d+0.0030.08
146A1200Hollow Metal Frames & Doors Shop Drawings10.0d-0.0080.08
147A2790L1, L2 & L3 Air Vapour Barrier Installation5.0d+0.0160.08
148A4680Interior Demoilition6.0d+0.0130.08
149A3290Mech. & Plumbing rough-ins10.0d-0.0080.08
150A2830Glazing Shop Fabrication19.0d+0.0040.08
151A4560Review Interferences with Steel Joist5.0d+0.0150.08
152A3050Horizontal Shading Louvers5.0d+0.0150.08
153A4430CPStud Framing3.0d-0.0250.07
154A3440New partition framing10.0d-0.0070.07
155A3500Gypsum board Installation5.0d+0.0140.07
156A4490CPFinishes5.0d+0.0130.07
157A3540Painting3.0d+0.0220.07
158A4100CPPainting3.0d-0.0220.07
159A2660Install Temporary Hoarding for Slab on Deck5.0d-0.0130.06
160A212020 05 10 - Electric Heat Tracing100.0d+0.0010.06
161A4760Trench Backfill5.0d+0.0120.06
162A1110.1CPStructural Reinforcement + Decking Shop Drawings (R1)3.0d+0.0210.06
163A3040L2 & L3 Cladding Installation (EW2)20.0d-0.0030.06
164A4230Close-out Documents & Training5.0d-0.0120.06
165A2590Backfilling to U/S of SOG5.0d-0.0120.06
166A3060CPL1, L2 & L3 Framing and Sheathing Installation15.0d-0.0040.06
167A1260Stud framing and Gypsum Board Data Sheets10.0d-0.0060.06
168A3750Washroom Partitions and Accessories Installation5.0d-0.0120.06
169A4220Final Cleaning5.0d-0.0110.06
170A4450CPPlywood Blocking3.0d-0.0190.06
171A4540Interior Demoilition10.0d+0.0060.06
172A4610MEP Rough-ins4.0d+0.0140.05
173A3280New partition framing10.0d+0.0050.05
174A1270Tiling Data sheet and samples10.0d-0.0050.05
175A4690Electrical Fixtures5.0d-0.0100.05
176A4550Existing Exterior Wall Demo (New Building Must be Erected and Enclosed)5.0d-0.0100.05
177A3940Existing Slab Removal and Trenching5.0d-0.0090.05
178A4780New Columns Installation5.0d-0.0090.05
179A2890L1 Masonry Wall Installation5.0d+0.0090.05
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Impact = |correlation| × planned duration. Critical-path activities flagged CP.

A-08

Methodology

basis, distribution, percentile method

Forecast completion dates are produced by Monte Carlo simulation over the activity duration distribution implied by the optimistic / most-likely / pessimistic percentages applied to each incomplete activity's planned duration. A full CPM forward pass is executed per iteration. Percentiles are derived from the completion-day vector using numpy.percentile(method='nearest') (harmonized across the engine in v2.8.x), which reports an actual simulation trial rather than an interpolated value, so each percentile traces back to a real, reproducible iteration. Sensitivity (tornado) is the Pearson correlation between each activity's sampled-duration vector and the final completion-day vector. Impact = |corr| × planned duration on the legacy PERT/Triangular path, or |corr| × posterior σ on the Bayesian-posterior path (when historical_snapshots was supplied). The active prior shape is reported per row in the sensitivity CSV's prior_method column.

Distribution: Triangular · Iterations: 5,000 · Random seed: none · Day basis: working_days days from data date. Working-day basis counts only the project’s own working days, read from the calendar loaded with this XER, so its workweek and its holiday exceptions are both honoured. The corresponding completion dates are the true calendar dates on which those working-day offsets fall.

Prepared by the schedule-risk-analysis skill in the CPP Scheduling Suite. This dashboard is self-contained. All assets are inlined and it renders offline.

A-09

Reproducibility Manifest

provenance
Generated
2026-07-15 17:47:55
Data Date
2025-07-01
Random Seed
none
Iterations (baseline)
5,000
Iterations (mitigated)
—
Percentile method
numpy nearest
Schedule Risk Analysis · Generated 2026-07-15 17:47:55 · Project Ontario Community College - B2 (Demo Data) · Run Monte Carlo · 5,000 iterationsSelf-contained · Reproducible