Northern Ontario Industrial Facility Expansion - Phase 2 — Forensic Delay Analysis
3 window(s) analyzed: Baseline (Mar 2025) → Window 3: Nov 2025-Mar 2026
Entitlement milestone: M-FIN
+93d
Baseline → final slip
+93d
Sum of window shifts
3
Windows
47.3%
Attribution complete
Windows Overview
| Window | Period | Shift | Cumulative vs Baseline | CP activities | CP duration growth | Slipped activities |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (Mar 2025) → Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025 | 03-Mar-2025 → 02-Jun-2025 | +16d | +16d | 13 | 1 | 14 |
| Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025 → Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 | 02-Jun-2025 → 03-Nov-2025 | +35d | +51d | 9 | 1 | 12 |
| Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 → Window 3: Nov 2025-Mar 2026 | 03-Nov-2025 → 02-Mar-2026 | +42d | +93d | 5 | 1 | 7 |
Window Shift Trend
Cumulative Attribution Summary
202d
Owner
111d
Contractor
74d
Concurrent
0d
Force Majeure
Concurrent Delay Matrix
Per-window × per-party attribution grid. Each cell = days
attributed to that party in that window. Column totals
equal the cumulative party share across the project; the
grand total equals the project completion shift
(AACE 29R-03 §4.1 conservation rule).
| Window | Period | Owner | Contractor | Concurrent | Force Majeure | Unattributed | Window shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (Mar 2025) → Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025 | 03-Mar-2025 → 02-Jun-2025 | — | — | — | — | +16d | +16d |
| Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025 → Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 | 02-Jun-2025 → 03-Nov-2025 | — | — | — | — | +35d | +35d |
| Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 → Window 3: Nov 2025-Mar 2026 | 03-Nov-2025 → 02-Mar-2026 | — | — | — | — | +42d | +42d |
| Cumulative | project totals | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d | +93d | +93d |
~CASCADE = window had no CP duration
growth; attribution inferred from dominant CP slip party.
Reference: AACE RP 29R-03 §4.2.B (concurrent delay apportionment).
Slip Velocity & Acceleration
Per-window slip-rate trend. Velocity = signed completion shift
(days) ÷ window duration (calendar days). Acceleration = change
in velocity vs the prior window. Half-period estimate assumes
uniform deterioration within the window.
+0.252
Mean velocity (d/d)
Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 → Window 3: Nov 2025-Mar 2026
Max-velocity window
2
Accelerating windows
0
Decelerating windows
| Window | Period | Duration | Shift | Velocity (d/d) | Δ Acceleration | Midpoint date | Half-period slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (Mar 2025) → Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025 | 03-Mar-2025 → 02-Jun-2025 | 91d | +16d | +0.176 | — | 17-Apr-2025 | +8.0d |
| Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025 → Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 | 02-Jun-2025 → 03-Nov-2025 | 154d | +35d | +0.227 | ▲ +0.051 | 18-Aug-2025 | +17.5d |
| Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 → Window 3: Nov 2025-Mar 2026 | 03-Nov-2025 → 02-Mar-2026 | 119d | +42d | +0.353 | ▲ +0.126 | 01-Jan-2026 | +21.0d |
Recovery windows (negative shift) detected: 0.
Reference: AACE RP 29R-03 §3.7 (Windows Analysis — MIP 3.7).
WOET — Worked-vs-On-time Execution Timeline
4-state day classification of as-built execution against the
baseline plan. Reference date: 2026-03-02.
Activities classified: 12.
On-time-or-better: 19.9% (Progress 19.9% + Gain).
Slipped: 80.1% (Extended + Void).
172d
Progress (19.9%)
0d
Gain (0.0%)
330d
Extended (38.1%)
364d
Void (42.0%)
Worst-affected activities (top 25 by Extended → Void)
| Code | Activity | Baseline period | Actual period | Progress | Gain | Extended | Void |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A4010 | Building Envelope - Cladding | 2026-02-16 → 2026-04-10 | 2026-04-08 → 2026-06-16 | 3d | 0d | 67d | 51d |
| A3010 | Structural Steel - Erection | 2025-10-13 → 2026-01-02 | 2025-11-24 → 2026-02-24 | 40d | 0d | 53d | 42d |
| A3020 | Roof Deck Install | 2026-01-05 → 2026-02-13 | 2026-02-25 → 2026-04-07 | 0d | 0d | 42d | 40d |
| A2020 | Mat Foundations - Pour & Cure | 2025-07-07 → 2025-09-05 | 2025-07-31 → 2025-10-17 | 37d | 0d | 42d | 24d |
| A4020 | Roofing - TPO Membrane | 2026-04-13 → 2026-05-08 | 2026-06-17 → 2026-07-21 | 0d | 0d | 35d | 26d |
| A2030 | Foundation Walls & Backfill | 2025-09-08 → 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-20 → 2025-11-21 | 0d | 0d | 33d | 33d |
| A2010 | Foundation Excavation | 2025-06-02 → 2025-07-04 | 2025-06-18 → 2025-07-30 | 17d | 0d | 26d | 16d |
| A1030 | Subgrade Preparation | 2025-05-05 → 2025-05-30 | 2025-05-15 → 2025-06-17 | 16d | 0d | 18d | 10d |
| A1020 | Site Clearing and Earthworks | 2025-03-24 → 2025-05-02 | 2025-03-24 → 2025-05-14 | 40d | 0d | 12d | 0d |
| A5010 IN-PROGRESS | Mechanical Equipment Set & Connect | 2026-05-11 → 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-22 → — | 0d | 0d | 1d | 68d |
| A5020 IN-PROGRESS | Electrical Service & Distribution | 2026-07-20 → 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-30 → — | 0d | 0d | 1d | 54d |
| A1010 | Mobilization & Site Setup | 2025-03-03 → 2025-03-21 | 2025-03-03 → 2025-03-21 | 19d | 0d | 0d | 0d |
Reference: MIP 3.6 (Modeled / Additive / Single Base — Impacted As-Planned) enhancement — AACE RP 29R-03 §3.6 (per AACE-canonical numbering; legacy CPP shorthand was "MIP 3.4").
Cumulative Activity Slip Register
Sum of signed slip across all windows per activity. Most-slipped first.
| Code | Activity | Total slip | Windows touched |
|---|---|---|---|
| A6010 CP | Process Equipment Install & Tie-In | +95d | 3 |
| A7010 CP | Commissioning & Pre-Startup | +95d | 3 |
| M-FIN CP | Substantial Completion | +93d | 3 |
| A4020 | Roofing - TPO Membrane | +74d | 3 |
| A5010 CP | Mechanical Equipment Set & Connect | +74d | 3 |
| A5020 CP | Electrical Service & Distribution | +74d | 3 |
| A4010 | Building Envelope - Cladding | +67d | 3 |
| A3010 CP | Structural Steel - Erection | +53d | 2 |
| A3020 CP | Roof Deck Install | +53d | 2 |
| A2020 | Mat Foundations - Pour & Cure | +42d | 2 |
| A2030 | Foundation Walls & Backfill | +42d | 2 |
| A2010 | Foundation Excavation | +26d | 2 |
| A1030 CP | Subgrade Preparation | +18d | 1 |
| A1020 | Site Clearing and Earthworks | +12d | 1 |
Window 1: Baseline (Mar 2025) → Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025
03-Mar-2025 → 02-Jun-2025
+16d
Critical-path duration growth (1)
Direct delay — every day of duration growth on a CP activity is a day of project slip.
| Code | Activity | Prior duration | Later duration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1030 | Subgrade Preparation | 20.0d | 24.0d | +4.0d |
Critical path membership changes
Newly critical (0)
None
No longer critical (2)
A1010, A1020
Slip register (14 activities)
Fill in responsible_party and cause_notes for each
slipped activity. Attribution drives the cumulative entitlement calculation.
| Code | Activity | Prior finish | Later finish | Slip | Responsible party | Cause notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1030 CP | Subgrade Preparation | 30-May-2025 | 17-Jun-2025 | +18d | Contractor | — add notes — |
| A2010 CP | Foundation Excavation | 04-Jul-2025 | 22-Jul-2025 | +18d | Contractor | — add notes — |
| A2020 CP | Mat Foundations - Pour & Cure | 05-Sep-2025 | 23-Sep-2025 | +18d | Owner | — add notes — |
| A2030 CP | Foundation Walls & Backfill | 10-Oct-2025 | 28-Oct-2025 | +18d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A3010 CP | Structural Steel - Erection | 02-Jan-2026 | 20-Jan-2026 | +18d | Owner | — add notes — |
| A3020 CP | Roof Deck Install | 13-Feb-2026 | 03-Mar-2026 | +18d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A4010 CP | Building Envelope - Cladding | 10-Apr-2026 | 28-Apr-2026 | +18d | Contractor | — add notes — |
| A4020 CP | Roofing - TPO Membrane | 08-May-2026 | 26-May-2026 | +18d | Concurrent | — add notes — |
| A5010 CP | Mechanical Equipment Set & Connect | 17-Jul-2026 | 04-Aug-2026 | +18d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A5020 CP | Electrical Service & Distribution | 11-Sep-2026 | 29-Sep-2026 | +18d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A6010 CP | Process Equipment Install & Tie-In | 04-Dec-2026 | 22-Dec-2026 | +18d | Owner | — add notes — |
| A7010 CP | Commissioning & Pre-Startup | 15-Jan-2027 | 02-Feb-2027 | +18d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| M-FIN CP | Substantial Completion | 18-Jan-2027 | 03-Feb-2027 | +16d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A1020 | Site Clearing and Earthworks | 02-May-2025 | 14-May-2025 | +12d | Owner | — add notes — |
Window 2: Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025 → Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025
02-Jun-2025 → 03-Nov-2025
+35d
Critical-path duration growth (1)
Direct delay — every day of duration growth on a CP activity is a day of project slip.
| Code | Activity | Prior duration | Later duration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A3010 | Structural Steel - Erection | 60.0d | 67.0d | +7.0d |
Critical path membership changes
Newly critical (0)
None
No longer critical (4)
A1030, A2010, A2020, A2030
Slip register (12 activities)
Fill in responsible_party and cause_notes for each
slipped activity. Attribution drives the cumulative entitlement calculation.
| Code | Activity | Prior finish | Later finish | Slip | Responsible party | Cause notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A3010 CP | Structural Steel - Erection | 20-Jan-2026 | 24-Feb-2026 | +35d | Owner | — add notes — |
| A3020 CP | Roof Deck Install | 03-Mar-2026 | 07-Apr-2026 | +35d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A4010 CP | Building Envelope - Cladding | 28-Apr-2026 | 02-Jun-2026 | +35d | Contractor | — add notes — |
| A4020 CP | Roofing - TPO Membrane | 26-May-2026 | 30-Jun-2026 | +35d | Concurrent | — add notes — |
| A5010 CP | Mechanical Equipment Set & Connect | 04-Aug-2026 | 08-Sep-2026 | +35d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A5020 CP | Electrical Service & Distribution | 29-Sep-2026 | 03-Nov-2026 | +35d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A6010 CP | Process Equipment Install & Tie-In | 22-Dec-2026 | 26-Jan-2027 | +35d | Owner | — add notes — |
| A7010 CP | Commissioning & Pre-Startup | 02-Feb-2027 | 09-Mar-2027 | +35d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| M-FIN CP | Substantial Completion | 03-Feb-2027 | 10-Mar-2027 | +35d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A2020 | Mat Foundations - Pour & Cure | 23-Sep-2025 | 17-Oct-2025 | +24d | Owner | — add notes — |
| A2030 | Foundation Walls & Backfill | 28-Oct-2025 | 21-Nov-2025 | +24d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A2010 | Foundation Excavation | 22-Jul-2025 | 30-Jul-2025 | +8d | Contractor | — add notes — |
Window 3: Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 → Window 3: Nov 2025-Mar 2026
03-Nov-2025 → 02-Mar-2026
+42d
Critical-path duration growth (1)
Direct delay — every day of duration growth on a CP activity is a day of project slip.
| Code | Activity | Prior duration | Later duration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A6010 | Process Equipment Install & Tie-In | 60.0d | 75.0d | +15.0d |
Critical path membership changes
Newly critical (0)
None
No longer critical (4)
A3010, A3020, A4010, A4020
Slip register (7 activities)
Fill in responsible_party and cause_notes for each
slipped activity. Attribution drives the cumulative entitlement calculation.
| Code | Activity | Prior finish | Later finish | Slip | Responsible party | Cause notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A6010 CP | Process Equipment Install & Tie-In | 26-Jan-2027 | 09-Mar-2027 | +42d | Owner | — add notes — |
| A7010 CP | Commissioning & Pre-Startup | 09-Mar-2027 | 20-Apr-2027 | +42d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| M-FIN CP | Substantial Completion | 10-Mar-2027 | 21-Apr-2027 | +42d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A4020 | Roofing - TPO Membrane | 30-Jun-2026 | 21-Jul-2026 | +21d | Concurrent | — add notes — |
| A5010 CP | Mechanical Equipment Set & Connect | 08-Sep-2026 | 29-Sep-2026 | +21d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A5020 CP | Electrical Service & Distribution | 03-Nov-2026 | 24-Nov-2026 | +21d | — assign — | — add notes — |
| A4010 | Building Envelope - Cladding | 02-Jun-2026 | 16-Jun-2026 | +14d | Contractor | — add notes — |