Northern Ontario Industrial Facility Expansion - Phase 2 — Forensic Delay Analysis

3 window(s) analyzed: Baseline (Mar 2025) → Window 3: Nov 2025-Mar 2026
Entitlement milestone: M-FIN
Generated 03-May-2026
+93d
Baseline → final slip
+93d
Sum of window shifts
3
Windows
47.3%
Attribution complete
Attribution required: 431 slip-days remain unattributed. Fill in the responsible_party column on the slip register below ('Owner' / 'Contractor' / 'Concurrent' / 'Force Majeure') to populate the attribution chart.

Windows Overview

Window Period Shift Cumulative vs Baseline CP activities CP duration growth Slipped activities
Baseline (Mar 2025) → Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025 03-Mar-2025 → 02-Jun-2025 +16d +16d 13 1 14
Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025 → Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 02-Jun-2025 → 03-Nov-2025 +35d +51d 9 1 12
Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 → Window 3: Nov 2025-Mar 2026 03-Nov-2025 → 02-Mar-2026 +42d +93d 5 1 7

Window Shift Trend

Cumulative Attribution Summary

202d
Owner
111d
Contractor
74d
Concurrent
0d
Force Majeure

Concurrent Delay Matrix

Per-window × per-party attribution grid. Each cell = days attributed to that party in that window. Column totals equal the cumulative party share across the project; the grand total equals the project completion shift (AACE 29R-03 §4.1 conservation rule).
Window Period OwnerContractorConcurrentForce MajeureUnattributed Window shift
Baseline (Mar 2025) → Window 1: Mar-Jun 202503-Mar-2025 → 02-Jun-2025+16d+16d
Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025 → Window 2: Jun-Nov 202502-Jun-2025 → 03-Nov-2025+35d+35d
Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 → Window 3: Nov 2025-Mar 202603-Nov-2025 → 02-Mar-2026+42d+42d
Cumulative project totals 0d0d0d0d+93d +93d
~CASCADE = window had no CP duration growth; attribution inferred from dominant CP slip party. Reference: AACE RP 29R-03 §4.2.B (concurrent delay apportionment).

Slip Velocity & Acceleration

Per-window slip-rate trend. Velocity = signed completion shift (days) ÷ window duration (calendar days). Acceleration = change in velocity vs the prior window. Half-period estimate assumes uniform deterioration within the window.
+0.252
Mean velocity (d/d)
Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 → Window 3: Nov 2025-Mar 2026
Max-velocity window
2
Accelerating windows
0
Decelerating windows
Window Period Duration Shift Velocity (d/d) Δ Acceleration Midpoint date Half-period slip
Baseline (Mar 2025) → Window 1: Mar-Jun 202503-Mar-2025 → 02-Jun-202591d+16d+0.17617-Apr-2025+8.0d
Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025 → Window 2: Jun-Nov 202502-Jun-2025 → 03-Nov-2025154d+35d+0.227▲ +0.05118-Aug-2025+17.5d
Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 → Window 3: Nov 2025-Mar 202603-Nov-2025 → 02-Mar-2026119d+42d+0.353▲ +0.12601-Jan-2026+21.0d
Caveat (cite in any expert report): Midpoint estimates assume uniform deterioration within the window. Actual slip events may have clustered at any point inside the window — the midpoint is a probabilistic centroid, not an observed event date. Cite this caveat in any expert report that quotes the half-period estimate. Velocity is a per-window average rate, not an instantaneous one; acceleration is a finite difference between successive averages and is sensitive to window-length disparity (sign and direction are reliable, magnitude less so).
Recovery windows (negative shift) detected: 0. Reference: AACE RP 29R-03 §3.7 (Windows Analysis — MIP 3.7).

WOET — Worked-vs-On-time Execution Timeline

4-state day classification of as-built execution against the baseline plan. Reference date: 2026-03-02. Activities classified: 12. On-time-or-better: 19.9% (Progress 19.9% + Gain). Slipped: 80.1% (Extended + Void).
172d
Progress (19.9%)
0d
Gain (0.0%)
330d
Extended (38.1%)
364d
Void (42.0%)

Worst-affected activities (top 25 by Extended → Void)

CodeActivity Baseline periodActual period ProgressGain ExtendedVoid
A4010 Building Envelope - Cladding 2026-02-16 → 2026-04-10 2026-04-08 → 2026-06-16 3d 0d 67d 51d
A3010 Structural Steel - Erection 2025-10-13 → 2026-01-02 2025-11-24 → 2026-02-24 40d 0d 53d 42d
A3020 Roof Deck Install 2026-01-05 → 2026-02-13 2026-02-25 → 2026-04-07 0d 0d 42d 40d
A2020 Mat Foundations - Pour & Cure 2025-07-07 → 2025-09-05 2025-07-31 → 2025-10-17 37d 0d 42d 24d
A4020 Roofing - TPO Membrane 2026-04-13 → 2026-05-08 2026-06-17 → 2026-07-21 0d 0d 35d 26d
A2030 Foundation Walls & Backfill 2025-09-08 → 2025-10-10 2025-10-20 → 2025-11-21 0d 0d 33d 33d
A2010 Foundation Excavation 2025-06-02 → 2025-07-04 2025-06-18 → 2025-07-30 17d 0d 26d 16d
A1030 Subgrade Preparation 2025-05-05 → 2025-05-30 2025-05-15 → 2025-06-17 16d 0d 18d 10d
A1020 Site Clearing and Earthworks 2025-03-24 → 2025-05-02 2025-03-24 → 2025-05-14 40d 0d 12d 0d
A5010 IN-PROGRESS Mechanical Equipment Set & Connect 2026-05-11 → 2026-07-17 2026-07-22 → — 0d 0d 1d 68d
A5020 IN-PROGRESS Electrical Service & Distribution 2026-07-20 → 2026-09-11 2026-09-30 → — 0d 0d 1d 54d
A1010 Mobilization & Site Setup 2025-03-03 → 2025-03-21 2025-03-03 → 2025-03-21 19d 0d 0d 0d
Reference: MIP 3.6 (Modeled / Additive / Single Base — Impacted As-Planned) enhancement — AACE RP 29R-03 §3.6 (per AACE-canonical numbering; legacy CPP shorthand was "MIP 3.4").

Cumulative Activity Slip Register

Sum of signed slip across all windows per activity. Most-slipped first.
CodeActivityTotal slipWindows touched
A6010 CP Process Equipment Install & Tie-In +95d 3
A7010 CP Commissioning & Pre-Startup +95d 3
M-FIN CP Substantial Completion +93d 3
A4020 Roofing - TPO Membrane +74d 3
A5010 CP Mechanical Equipment Set & Connect +74d 3
A5020 CP Electrical Service & Distribution +74d 3
A4010 Building Envelope - Cladding +67d 3
A3010 CP Structural Steel - Erection +53d 2
A3020 CP Roof Deck Install +53d 2
A2020 Mat Foundations - Pour & Cure +42d 2
A2030 Foundation Walls & Backfill +42d 2
A2010 Foundation Excavation +26d 2
A1030 CP Subgrade Preparation +18d 1
A1020 Site Clearing and Earthworks +12d 1
Window 1: Baseline (Mar 2025) → Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025
03-Mar-2025 → 02-Jun-2025
+16d

Critical-path duration growth (1)

Direct delay — every day of duration growth on a CP activity is a day of project slip.
CodeActivityPrior durationLater durationGrowth
A1030 Subgrade Preparation 20.0d 24.0d +4.0d

Critical path membership changes

Newly critical (0)
None
No longer critical (2)
A1010, A1020

Slip register (14 activities)

Fill in responsible_party and cause_notes for each slipped activity. Attribution drives the cumulative entitlement calculation.
CodeActivity Prior finishLater finishSlip Responsible partyCause notes
A1030 CP Subgrade Preparation 30-May-2025 17-Jun-2025 +18d Contractor — add notes —
A2010 CP Foundation Excavation 04-Jul-2025 22-Jul-2025 +18d Contractor — add notes —
A2020 CP Mat Foundations - Pour & Cure 05-Sep-2025 23-Sep-2025 +18d Owner — add notes —
A2030 CP Foundation Walls & Backfill 10-Oct-2025 28-Oct-2025 +18d — assign — — add notes —
A3010 CP Structural Steel - Erection 02-Jan-2026 20-Jan-2026 +18d Owner — add notes —
A3020 CP Roof Deck Install 13-Feb-2026 03-Mar-2026 +18d — assign — — add notes —
A4010 CP Building Envelope - Cladding 10-Apr-2026 28-Apr-2026 +18d Contractor — add notes —
A4020 CP Roofing - TPO Membrane 08-May-2026 26-May-2026 +18d Concurrent — add notes —
A5010 CP Mechanical Equipment Set & Connect 17-Jul-2026 04-Aug-2026 +18d — assign — — add notes —
A5020 CP Electrical Service & Distribution 11-Sep-2026 29-Sep-2026 +18d — assign — — add notes —
A6010 CP Process Equipment Install & Tie-In 04-Dec-2026 22-Dec-2026 +18d Owner — add notes —
A7010 CP Commissioning & Pre-Startup 15-Jan-2027 02-Feb-2027 +18d — assign — — add notes —
M-FIN CP Substantial Completion 18-Jan-2027 03-Feb-2027 +16d — assign — — add notes —
A1020 Site Clearing and Earthworks 02-May-2025 14-May-2025 +12d Owner — add notes —
Window 2: Window 1: Mar-Jun 2025 → Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025
02-Jun-2025 → 03-Nov-2025
+35d

Critical-path duration growth (1)

Direct delay — every day of duration growth on a CP activity is a day of project slip.
CodeActivityPrior durationLater durationGrowth
A3010 Structural Steel - Erection 60.0d 67.0d +7.0d

Critical path membership changes

Newly critical (0)
None
No longer critical (4)
A1030, A2010, A2020, A2030

Slip register (12 activities)

Fill in responsible_party and cause_notes for each slipped activity. Attribution drives the cumulative entitlement calculation.
CodeActivity Prior finishLater finishSlip Responsible partyCause notes
A3010 CP Structural Steel - Erection 20-Jan-2026 24-Feb-2026 +35d Owner — add notes —
A3020 CP Roof Deck Install 03-Mar-2026 07-Apr-2026 +35d — assign — — add notes —
A4010 CP Building Envelope - Cladding 28-Apr-2026 02-Jun-2026 +35d Contractor — add notes —
A4020 CP Roofing - TPO Membrane 26-May-2026 30-Jun-2026 +35d Concurrent — add notes —
A5010 CP Mechanical Equipment Set & Connect 04-Aug-2026 08-Sep-2026 +35d — assign — — add notes —
A5020 CP Electrical Service & Distribution 29-Sep-2026 03-Nov-2026 +35d — assign — — add notes —
A6010 CP Process Equipment Install & Tie-In 22-Dec-2026 26-Jan-2027 +35d Owner — add notes —
A7010 CP Commissioning & Pre-Startup 02-Feb-2027 09-Mar-2027 +35d — assign — — add notes —
M-FIN CP Substantial Completion 03-Feb-2027 10-Mar-2027 +35d — assign — — add notes —
A2020 Mat Foundations - Pour & Cure 23-Sep-2025 17-Oct-2025 +24d Owner — add notes —
A2030 Foundation Walls & Backfill 28-Oct-2025 21-Nov-2025 +24d — assign — — add notes —
A2010 Foundation Excavation 22-Jul-2025 30-Jul-2025 +8d Contractor — add notes —
Window 3: Window 2: Jun-Nov 2025 → Window 3: Nov 2025-Mar 2026
03-Nov-2025 → 02-Mar-2026
+42d

Critical-path duration growth (1)

Direct delay — every day of duration growth on a CP activity is a day of project slip.
CodeActivityPrior durationLater durationGrowth
A6010 Process Equipment Install & Tie-In 60.0d 75.0d +15.0d

Critical path membership changes

Newly critical (0)
None
No longer critical (4)
A3010, A3020, A4010, A4020

Slip register (7 activities)

Fill in responsible_party and cause_notes for each slipped activity. Attribution drives the cumulative entitlement calculation.
CodeActivity Prior finishLater finishSlip Responsible partyCause notes
A6010 CP Process Equipment Install & Tie-In 26-Jan-2027 09-Mar-2027 +42d Owner — add notes —
A7010 CP Commissioning & Pre-Startup 09-Mar-2027 20-Apr-2027 +42d — assign — — add notes —
M-FIN CP Substantial Completion 10-Mar-2027 21-Apr-2027 +42d — assign — — add notes —
A4020 Roofing - TPO Membrane 30-Jun-2026 21-Jul-2026 +21d Concurrent — add notes —
A5010 CP Mechanical Equipment Set & Connect 08-Sep-2026 29-Sep-2026 +21d — assign — — add notes —
A5020 CP Electrical Service & Distribution 03-Nov-2026 24-Nov-2026 +21d — assign — — add notes —
A4010 Building Envelope - Cladding 02-Jun-2026 16-Jun-2026 +14d Contractor — add notes —